RETAIL TRADE ANALYSIS, 1998
FAIRMONT &
MARTIN COUNTY, MINNESOTA
Prepared by:
Kenneth E. Stone, Ph.D.,
Professor of Economics
and
Georgeanne M. Artz, M.S.,
Extension Program Specialist
Iowa State University
October 2000
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This retail trade analysis was
prepared for the City of Fairmont, Minnesota.
The main purpose of the study was to determine the status of Fairmont's
retail sector and to delineate the trade area geographically so that business
people, city officials, developers and other interested parties could make
informed decisions regarding the future of the business district.
Figure 1 summarizes the status of retailing in Fairmont as of 1998 (the latest data available) compared to other Minnesota towns of the same size.
Sales in the automotive group were nearly $13.3 million above average, compared to peer towns. Other areas of strength in order were: food ($4.6 million above average); eating and drinking ($2.6 million above average) and services ($2.1 million above average). The below average categories in order were: general merchandise ($6.5 million below average); home furnishings ($1.7 million below average), building materials ($250,000 below average) and apparel ($190,000 below average). Other key findings are listed below.
1. Overall in 1998, the retail sector in Fairmont had sales of about $177 million or about $2.4 million less than the average town of its size in Minnesota.
2. From 1996 to 1998 the fastest growing segments of Fairmont's retail sector were 1) miscellaneous, with a gain of $11.2 million; 2) automotive ($8 million gain); general merchandise ($4.6 million gain); food ($1.9 million gain); services ($1.2 million gain) and eating and drinking ($646,000 gain).
3. The declining portions of Fairmont's retail sector from 1996 to 1998 were 1) building materials ($1.6 million decline); 2) home furnishings ($1.5 million decline); and 3) apparel ($768,863 decline).
4. A pull factor analysis of 11 peer towns ranks Fairmont number seven in overall sales. Fairmont's highest ranking is automotive at number four and its worst ranking is furniture at number 8.
5. Martin County slipped from an $8.2 million surplus (net inflow of retail trade) in 1996 to a $17.8 million leakage (net outflow of retail trade) in 1998.
6. In 1998 Martin County had surpluses of trade in automotive, general merchandise and building materials. The county experienced leakages in all other categories.
7. In 1977 Fairmont's overall pull factor was 1.81 (equivalent to selling to 181 percent of Fairmont's population). However, Fairmont's pull factor declined to 1.26 by 1987, but has since increased to 1.46 in 1997.
8. Fairmont's general merchandise pull factor has gradually increased from 1.65 in 1977 to 1.9 in 1997, but lags well behind the average of 3.14 for peer towns.
9. Fairmont's food pull factor declined from 2.94 in 1977 to 1.71 in 1987 before again climbing to 1.87 in 1997, which is slightly below the average of 1.98 for the peer group.
10. The major conclusion of the study is that there are significant opportunities for expansion among general merchandise stores, home furnishings stores, building materials stores, apparel stores, and probably food stores. The probability for success in these categories is greatly enhanced because of the relative strengths in automotive, eating and drinking, and services. In addition, Fairmont is geographically positioned to carve out a much larger trade area with the addition of more retail facilities.
INTRODUCTION
The
main purpose of this retail trade analysis is to inform business people,
developers, city officials and other interested citizens of the history and
current status of Fairmont's retail sector.
By knowing the relative strengths and weaknesses of Fairmont's retail
sector, it is hoped that merchants will build upon strengths and capitalize on
the areas of opportunity. The following
paragraphs will attempt to answer some of the questions most frequently asked
about these analyses.
Data Sources
The
sales figures for Fairmont and other Minnesota towns for 1996 and 1998 came
from sales tax reports compiled by the Minnesota Department of Revenue. The Department did not publish a 1997 sales
tax report because of budget constraints.
These sales are for calendar years, running from January 1 to December
31.
The
sales reported for earlier years came from the U.S. Census of Retail
Trade. This census is conducted every
five years and formats have been consistent for many years. It would have been preferable to use
Department of Revenue sales tax figures from the more distant past, but they
were either not available or of an inconsistent format.
Population
figures came from the Minnesota State Demographer's office. The State
Demographer produces annual population and household estimates in the years
between official census years.
Income
figures came from Survey of Buying Power,
Sales and Marketing Management Magazine.
These figures are updated and published every year.
Terminology
Current Dollar Sales
Current
dollar sales are sales as reported by the state. In other words, no correction has been made for price
inflation. In general this measure of
sales is not very satisfactory for comparisons over time since it does not take
into consideration changes in population, inflation, or the state's
economy. Current dollars are also known
as “nominal dollars.”
Constant Dollar Sales
Constant
dollar sales reflect changes in price inflation. The method used in this report uses the Consumer Price Index to
deflate sales data. Constant dollar
sales indicate the real sales level with respect to some base year. This is a more realistic method of
evaluating sales over time than current dollar comparisons, but still does not
account for changes in population or changes in the state's economy. Constant dollars are sometimes referred to
as “real dollars.”
Per Capita Sales
Per
capita (or “per person”) sales are calculated by dividing current dollar sales
by the population estimate. In areas
where population is subject to substantial change, this is a better measure of
sales activity than sales alone.
However, it still does not reflect changes in the state's economy.
Pull Factor
The
pull factor was developed by Iowa State University Extension Service to provide
a precise measure of sales activity in a locality. It is derived by dividing the per capita current dollar sales of
a town or county by the per capita sales for the state. For example, if a town's per capita sales
were $20,000 per year and the state per capita sales were $10,000 per year, the
pull factor is 2.0 ($20,000 ¸ $10,000). The interpretation is that the town is
selling to 200 percent of the town population in full-time customer
equivalents.
Pull
factors are good measures of sales activity because they reflect changes in
population, inflation, and the state's economy. The pull factors listed in this report are not adjusted for
purchasing power; they are simply the ratio of local per person sales to the
state average. Income levels are accounted
for in the expected sales and potential sales formulas, described below.
Effective Buying Income (EBI)
A
statistic developed by Survey of Buying
Power, Sales & Marketing
Management (Bill Communications, Inc.), EBI is defined as income (wages,
salary, dividends, interest, pensions, etc.) less taxes and certain other non-taxable
items. Commonly it is referred to as
“income after taxes” or “disposable personal income.”
Index of Income
This
index is calculated by dividing local per capita income by state per capita
income. It is a relative measure of
income, with the base being 100 (sometimes expressed in a decimal format, such
as 1.00). For example, an index number
of 1.20 would indicate that per capita income in that area is 20 percent above
the state average.
Expected Sales
Expected sales is an estimate of the
sales level a town should achieve if it were performing on a par with towns of
a similar size in its state. In
essence, it is a retail performance benchmark.
In addition to population and income variables, expected sales
incorporates the typical strength of comparable communities via the typical pull factor component as shown
in the equation below:
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For
example, if a town had a population of 10,000, the state per capita sales were
$10,000, the typical pull factor was 1.30, and the index of income was 1.00,
expected sales would be approximately $130 million per year (10,000 x $10,000 x
1.30 x 1.00). This provides a means of comparing what is expected
for a town of a certain size to what is actually happening.
Variance Between Actual Sales & Expected
Sales
The variance between actual
and expected sales is how much retail sales differ from the “norm” (i.e., the
amount above or below the standard established by the expected sales
formula). The set of similarly sized
towns in the state is the “peer group” to which the comparison is being
made.
Discrepancies
between expected and actual sales occur for a variety of reasons. Transportation patterns, proximity to larger
population centers, and the quality of management and marketing, are just a few
factors that can cause the retail sales of a particular town to deviate
substantially from expected sales. It
is important that decision-makers consider these influences when constructing
policies, plans, or projects. The
variance between actual and expected sales is expressed in dollars,
percentages, and customer equivalents.
The use of the analysis will dictate which measure best conveys the
information, though all are equivalent.
Potential Sales
Potential
sales is a term used with reference to counties. The formula is:
Potential sales is an
estimate of the amount of money that would be spent on retail goods and
services by residents of the county.
The potential sales concept for counties is similar to the expected
sales calculations for towns, though it differs in that potential sales does
not utilize a measure of typical pulling power (like the typical pull factor
that is used in the expected sales equation).
Since a county is a large, well-defined region within which retail
business takes place, counties are compared to other counties without
adjustments for trade area size (the pull factor is set at 1.0).
Surplus or Leakage
If the estimate of available
sales in a municipality does not match what is actually spent, then business is
apparently going elsewhere. This is the
“surplus” or the “leakage”, which is calculated by finding the difference
between potential county sales and actual county sales. This statistic attempts to quantify the
actual net inflow or net outflow of money.
The
“trade area population gain or loss” statistic transforms surplus and leakage
dollar figures into full-time customer equivalents. Note that the equivalent
gain or loss of customers and the dollar
gain or loss to county are gross measures, while surplus or leakage as a percent of potential sales is a relative
measure.
STUDY RESULTS
The
results of the study are presented below.
The categories are 1) current analysis for Fairmont, 2) current analysis
for Martin County, 3) historical analysis for Fairmont and surrounding towns
and 4) trade area maps for Fairmont.
Current Analysis for Fairmont
Several merchandise
categories for Fairmont are analyzed for 1998 (the latest data available) and
compared to 1996 (The Minnesota Department of Revenue did not publish data for
1997). Expected sales are computed for
Fairmont and compared to actual sales to determine if there is a surplus or
leakage of retail trade. This process
was discussed in the introduction.
Building Materials
The building materials
category includes lumberyards, hardware stores, paint stores and other
miscellaneous building materials stores.
This category is a strong attraction to farmers, many of whom will
conduct other shopping in town. It is
also an important category in keeping local do-it-yourselfers in town to
shop. Figure 2 is a bar graph showing
the expected sales, actual sales and surplus or leakage for 1996 and 1998. In 1998 Fairmont was slightly below average
(a leakage of $250,000) for towns of this size, however, its position slipped
considerably from 1996 when it had a $5.1 million surplus. Expected sales grew from $10.7 million in
1996 to $14.5 million in 1998, but actual sales dropped from $15.8 million to $14.2
million during this period.

The 1998 Fairmont trade area
map for building materials is shown in Appendix A1. The primary trade area (80 percent probability of buying in
Fairmont) includes a population of 13,726 with total personal income of $334 million. The secondary trade area (60 percent
probability of buying in Fairmont) includes a population of 5,754 with $128
million of personal income. The
tertiary trade area (40 percent probability of buying in Fairmont) includes
7,110 population with income of $169 million.
In total, Fairmont's trade area for building materials includes a
population of 26,590 with a total personal income of $631 million.
General Merchandise
The general merchandise
category is made up primarily of department stores such as K Mart, Wal-Mart,
J.C. Penney, Sears, etc. and variety stores such as Dollar General and Family
Dollar. This is an important category
to a town the size of Fairmont, because these stores are the equivalent of
anchor stores in a shopping mall; they are strong attractants to shoppers. Figure 3 compares 1996 sales to 1998
sales. In 1996 Fairmont's general
merchandise sales were slightly below average (a $680,000 leakage), but slipped
to a leakage of $6.5 million by 1998.
Actual sales did grow from $26.9 million in 1996 to $31.5 million in 1998. However, expected sales grew at a much
faster rate from $27.6 million to $38 million.
Assuming that Fairmont should be able to generate general merchandise
sales well above average, there is little doubt that either existing merchants
should expand store space or a new general merchandise store should be built.

Appendix A2 shows the trade
area map for general merchandise for Fairmont for 1998. The primary trade area includes 14,319
people with an annual total personal income of $346 million. The secondary trade area has a population of
5,716 and a personal income of $130 million.
The tertiary trade area has a population of 10,637 and a personal income
of $238 million. The total trade area
for general merchandise has a population of 30,672 with an annual personal
income of $715 million.
Food Stores

The food store category
consists primarily of grocery stores, but also includes bakeries, dairies,
etc. This category is also extremely
important to a healthy retail sector. People
spend more money in grocery stores and shop there more frequently than any
other type of store. Figure 4 shows
that Fairmont's food sales have declined from a surplus of $8.1 million in 1996
to $4.6 million in 1998. Actual sales
increased slightly from $31.5 million in 1996 to $33.4 million in 1998. This obviously did not keep pace with
expected sales which rose from $23.3 million in 1996 to $28.8 million in
1998. It is imperative that existing
grocery stores take action to increase sales or that a new grocery store be introduced
into the community in order to meet the demand generated by more and more small
town residents shopping for groceries in larger towns.
Appendix A3 shows the trade
area map for food store sales. The
primary trade area has a population of 12,650 and an annual personal income of
$312 million. The secondary trade area
population is 2,915 with a personal income of $62 million. The tertiary trade area population is 8,757 with
a personal income of $198 million. The
population for the total trade area is 24,322, having personal income of $571
million.
Apparel Stores
Apparel stores consist of
men's, women's and children's clothing stores as well as shoe stores. It is difficult to maintain these types of
stores in small to mid-size towns because of the extreme competition from
department stores and stores in larger cities such as Mankato or
Minneapolis. The strong trend to casual
wear has exacerbated this problem.
Figure 5 shows that Fairmont apparel store sales have slipped from a
surplus of $530,000 in 1996 to a leakage of $190,000 in 1998. Actual sales slipped from $3.4 million to
$2.6 million during that period, while expected sales decreased slightly from
$2.9 million to $2.8 million. In
today's environment, the best opportunity for apparel stores in towns like
Fairmont is to become more of a family oriented store.
The
trade area map is shown in appendix A4.
The primary trade area has a population of 16,651 with an annual
personal income of $398 million. The
secondary trade area has a population of 5,460 with a personal income of $128
million. The tertiary trade area has a
population of 9,189 with a personal income of $202 million. For the total apparel trade area, the
population is 31,300 and the personal income is $728 million.

Home Furnishings
Stores
Home furnishings stores
consist of furniture stores, major appliance stores, floor covering stores,
drapery stores, etc. Because of the
strong building boom in the 1990s these types of stores enjoyed somewhat of a resurgence,
however, the long-term trends favor the big city stores where selections are
much larger. Figure 6 is a bar chart
showing that Fairmont's home furnishings stores slipped from a surplus of $1.9
million in 1996 to a leakage of $1.7 million in 1998. Actual sales fell from $5.6 million to $4.1 million during this
period, while expected sales rose from $3.6 million to $5.7 million. It would appear that there is room for
expansion by existing businesses or a need for certain new businesses. If the general merchandise and food segments
could be strengthened, the home furnishing category would probably also
benefit.

The trade area map is shown
in appendix A5. The primary trade area
has a population of 12,650 with an annual income of $312 million. The secondary trade area has a population of
2,644 with a personal income of $54 million.
The tertiary trade area has a population of 7,611 with a personal income
of $178 million. For the total home
furnishings trade area, the population is 22,905 and the personal income is $544
million.
Eating and
Drinking
Eating and drinking
establishments are obviously restaurants, taverns and bars. This is a rapidly growing part of our
economy since more and more people are eating away from home. Fairmont is relatively strong in this
category, but has slipped, compared to peer towns. Figure 7 is a bar chart depicting the fact that Fairmont's
surplus of sales in this category slipped from $3.0 million in 1996 to $2.6
million in 1998. Actual sales increased
from $11.5 million to $12.1 million during this period, but failed to keep pace
with expected sales which increased from $8.5 million to $9.5 million. Even though Fairmont is well above average
in this category now, it could grow even more if other key segments such as
general merchandise and food were strengthened.

Appendix A6 shows the trade
area map for eating and drinking sales.
The primary trade area has a population of 13,667 with personal income
of $331 million while the secondary trade area has a population of 4,408 with
personal income of $100 million. The
tertiary trade area contains a population of 6,747 with a personal income of
$159 million. In total the eating and
drinking trade area encompasses a population of 24,822 with a personal income
of $590 million.
Automotive
The automotive category
consists of both new and used car dealers and auto parts stores. This is Fairmont's strongest retail segment
and ways should be found to attract customers from these businesses to other
businesses in town. As figure 8 shows,
Fairmont's surplus of sales in this category increased from $8.5 million in
1996 to $13 million in 1998. Actual
sales increased from $42 million to $50 million during this period, while
expected sales increased from $33.5 million to $36.6 million. In spite of its strength, the automotive
sector does not generate as much benefit to other stores in town as do general
merchandise and food stores, primarily because the average consumer goes to
automotive stores relatively infrequently.

The trade area map is shown
in appendix A7. The primary trade area
has a population of 13,667 with personal income of $331 million per year. The secondary trade area has 7,346 people
and personal income of $166 million.
The tertiary trade area has 7,057 people and personal income of $166
million. The total population of the
automotive trade area is 28,070 with personal income of $663 million per year.
Services

The services category
consists of a variety of firms from beauty shops and automotive repair shops to
bowling alleys, theaters and motels.
This is a rapidly growing category as many people now purchase services
that they once performed themselves. As
figure 9 shows, this is a strong category for Fairmont although it has slipped
slightly from 1996 to 1998. The surplus
slipped from $3 million to $2.1 million from 1996 to 1998. Actual sales increased from $14.3 million to
$15.5 million during this period, but failed to keep pace with expected sales
which increased from $11.4 million to $13.4 million. Ways should be sought to induce customers of these businesses to
spill over to other existing businesses in Fairmont.
The trade area map for
services is shown in appendix A8. It
shows that in the primary trade area there is a population of 13,408 with
annual personal income of $327 million.
The secondary trade area has a population of 4,759 and personal income
of $106 million. The tertiary trade
area consists of population of 7,224 and personal income of $169 million. In total the trade area for services consists
of a population of 25,391 and personal income of $601 million.
Miscellaneous

The miscellaneous category
includes various retail businesses that could not logically be classified into
the preceding merchandise categories.
Figure 10 shows that miscellaneous sales in Fairmont increased
substantially from 1996 to 1998, going from a leakage of $2.0 million to a
slight leakage of $270,000. During this
period actual sales increased from $18.1 million to $29.3 million while
expected sales increased from $20.2 million to $30 million.
Total Sales

Total sales, as used here,
includes the retail sales for the categories listed above, as well as sales in
the personal services category. Total
sales would not include sales in professional firms such as lawyers, accountants
and doctors. Sales of agricultural
products, utilities and other non-retail categories would also be
excluded. Figure 11 shows that total
sales are slightly below average and slipping compared to peer towns. Total sales surplus was $13 million in 1996
but slipped to a leakage of $2.4 million in 1998. Actual total sales increased from $155 million in 1996 to $176.5
in 1998, but failed to keep pace with expected sales which increased from
$141.6 million to $178.9 million during the same period.
Appendix A9 shows the trade
area map for total sales in Fairmont.
The primary trade area has a population of 13,667 with personal income
of $331 million. The secondary trade area
has a population of 4,791 with personal income of $109 million. The tertiary trade area has a population of
7,365 and a personal income of $172 million.
In total the overall trade area for Fairmont has a population of 25,823
and a personal income of $612 million per year.
The strength of total retail
sales in Fairmont presents an attractive situation for certain developers and
retail firms. New and expanded
businesses that might develop in the weaker categories such as general
merchandise and food will probably have an outstanding chance for success
because of the overall strength of the city's retail sector.
Table 1 presents summaries
of Fairmont's sales by merchandise category for 1996 and 1998. In addition to the sales performance
discussed above, there are several other interesting items in the table. For example, the variance between actual and
expected sales in percentage terms decreased in every category but automotive
and miscellaneous between 1996 and 1998.
Also, the number of firms decreased in five of the nine categories as
well as for total number of firms. The
last column of the table shows the share that each merchandise category has of
the total sales. For Fairmont, the
automotive category has the largest share of total sales in 1998 at 28.3
percent. In most towns the size of
Fairmont, general merchandise and food would make up the largest shares of
total sales. It can therefore be
concluded that there is considerable room for expansion of the general
merchandise and food categories in Fairmont.


Figure 12 summarizes
the 1998 retail surpluses or leakages for Fairmont for nine merchandise
categories and for total sales in percentage terms. The strongest category in percentage terms is automotive at 36.5
percent surplus, followed by eating and drinking (27.8%), food (15.9%), and
services (15.6%). The weakest categories are home furnishings (-29.1%), general
merchandise (-17.1%) apparel (-6.8%), building materials (-1.7%) and
miscellaneous (-0.9%). Total sales showed a 1.3 percent leakage,
compared to the average for similar size peer towns.
Figure 13 shows the dollar
changes in merchandise categories between 1996 and 1998 for Fairmont. The miscellaneous category had the biggest
dollar increase at $11.2 million, followed by automotive at $8.0 million,
general merchandise at $4.6 million, food at $1.9 million, services at $1.2
million and eating and drinking at $647,000.
The biggest declines were experienced by building materials at $1.6
million, followed by home furnishings at $1.5 million, and apparel at $769,000.
Figure 14 compares
Fairmont's total retail sales to eight other Minnesota towns of a similar
size. The bar chart shows the
difference between expected sales and actual sales (ie; the surplus or leakage)
in dollars for each of the towns. The
ranking of the towns can best be summarized by the next to last column which
shows the percentage surplus or leakage.
Buffalo is the leader at 92.8%, followed by Fergus Falls at 86.8%,
Virginia at 82.6%, Albert Lea at 62.3%,
Marshall at 58.1%, and Worthington at 48.3%. The weakest town in the peer group was New Ulm at 33.7% below
average, followed by Cloquet at 5.7% below average and Fairmont at 1.3% below
average. The last column shows the
full-time customer equivalents per year that the towns serve, compared to the
average.


Figure 14.
Table 2 shows the pull
factors for the peer towns for each of the merchandise categories and for total
sales. The pull factor is a proxy
measure for the size of the trade areas for the towns. The bottom table ranks the towns according
to the strengths of their various pull factors. The pull factor rankings will vary from the surplus or leakage
ranking because the pull factors do not take income levels into consideration.
General
Merchandise
The top table shows that, in
general, the strongest merchandise category for these towns is general
merchandise with an average pull factor of 3.14. This means that on average, these towns sell to 314% of the town
population in full-time customer equivalents.
Bemidji is the leader, with a pull factor of 4.38. Fairmont is in last place with a pull factor
of 1.85. However, Wal-Mart recently
opened a Supercenter in Worthington, which will increase its general
merchandise sales dramatically, and probably pull sales away from Fairmont and
other surrounding towns.
Food
Grocery stores (food) are
the second strongest category for towns of this size. Bemidji and Buffalo lead peer group towns with pull factors of
2.69 and 2.40, respectively. The average
for all towns is 1.98, while Fairmont ranks seventh with a pull factor of 1.87. This means that even though Fairmont has a
large trade area for food, it has the potential to grow substantially when
compared to peer towns. Adding to this
potential is the continuing trend of small town residents abandoning their
local grocery stores and travelling to larger towns to shop.

Table 2.
Automotive
Automotive sales rank third
in pull factor values for towns of this size.
Buffalo is the leader with a pull factor of 4.72 and the average was
1.83. Fairmont ranked fourth among peer
towns with a pull factor of 1.67.
Building
Materials
Building materials is the
fourth strongest merchandise category for the peer towns, with an average pull
factor of 1.48. Marshall leads these
towns with a pull factor of 2.70.
Fairmont is ranked seventh with a pull factor of 1.25.
Miscellaneous
The miscellaneous category
is the fifth strongest group, but will not be analyzed here because of the wide
variance of the types of businesses included in this category from town to
town.
Eating and
Drinking
The sixth strongest
category, in terms of pull factors, is eating and drinking, with an average
pull factor of 1.25. Bemidji ranks
number one among the peer towns with a pull factor of 2.42. Fairmont ranks seventh with a pull factor of
1.13.
Furniture
The home furnishings
category ranks as the seventh strongest category with an average pull factor of
1.16. Mendota Heights is the clear
leader among the peer towns with a pull factor of 4.54. Fairmont ranks eighth among the peer towns
with a pull factor of 0.41, meaning that it is selling to the equivalent of
only 41 percent of the town population.
Apparel
The apparel category ranks
next to last in pull factor strength among the merchandise categories with an
average pull factor of 1.04. Bemidji
ranks first among the peer towns with a pull factor of 2.28. Fairmont ranks sixth among the towns with a
pull factor of 0.70, meaning that Fairmont's apparel sales are the equivalent
of selling to only 70 percent of the town population.
Services
The weakest category among
the peer towns is services, with an average pull factor of 0.70. This figure is weighted heavily statewide by
motels and hotels, which are found in much greater numbers in bigger cities
rather than in smaller towns. Virginia
is the leading town with a pull factor of 1.93. Fairmont's pull factor ranks seventh at 0.45.
Total Sales
The average pull factor for
total sales for the peer towns was 1.64.
Bemidji was the leading town with a pull factor of 2.82. Fairmont ranks seventh among the 11 towns with
a pull factor of 1.43.
Current Analysis for Martin County
Table 3 shows a retail sales
analysis for Martin County for 1996 and 1998.
The following discussion analyzes sales by merchandise category.
Building
Material
Actual sales for building
materials decreased from $20 million in 1996 to $18.4 million in 1998. Potential sales increased from $13.9 million
to $16.7 million during this period.
Martin County still had a surplus of $1.7 million in 1998, but this is a
big decline from its 1996 surplus of $6.1 million. The number of firms increased by one during this period.
General
Merchandise
Sales in general merchandise
stores increased from $27 million in 1996 to $31.6 million in 1998. This is about the same rate of increase as
potential sales, resulting in the surplus remaining nearly constant at $6.5
million. The number of firms dropped
from seven to six during this period.
Food
Sales in food stores
(grocery stores) dropped from $20.2 million in 1996 to $19.2 million in
1998. Consequently the leakage also
worsened from $4 million to $7.1 million.
The number of food stored decreased by one from 15 to 14.

Table 3.
Apparel
Apparel store sales dropped
from $3.4 million in 1996 to $2.7 million in 1998. Accordingly, the leakage worsened from $1.7 million to $2.9
million during this period. The number
of stores decreased by two from 12 to 10.
Home
Furnishings
Sales in home furnishing
stores decreased from $6.7 million in 1996 to $6.2 million in 1998. Since this was during a time of robust home
building, potential sales increased from $11.2 million to $14.5 million,
resulting in a worsening of the leakage from $4.4 million to $8.3 million. The number of firms dropped by five from 36
to 31.
Eating and
Drinking
Sales in restaurants and
bars increased from $13.8 million to $14.2 million from 1996 to 1998, but
failed to keep pace with potential sales. Consequently Martin County went from
a slight surplus in 1996 to a leakage of $1.6 million in 1998. The number of firms decreased by three from
51 to 48 during this period.
Automotive
Sales of automotive firms
were very strong, increasing from $70 million in 1996 to $79.8 million in
1998. The county surplus increased from
$29.2 million to $35.8 million during this period. The number of firms decreased from 50 to 48.
Services
Sales in services increased
from $18.1 million in 1996 to $20.1 million in 1998, but failed to keep pace
with potential sales. Consequently, the
leakage in services worsened from $25.1 million to $30.9 million during this
period.
Miscellaneous
Sales of miscellaneous
retail businesses increased dramatically from $20.7 million in 1996 to $32.3
million in 1998. This sales increase
reduced the leakage from $16.4 million to $11 million.
Total Sales
Total sales increased
slightly from $218 million in 1996 to $224.3 million in 1998. This increase lagged substantially the
increase in potential sales resulting in Martin County going from a total
surplus of $8.2 million to a leakage of $17.8 million during this period.
Demographics
Table 4 shows income and
population figures as well as trade migration figures for Martin County and
surrounding counties. In 1998 Martin
County had about $271 million effective buying income (EBI). The median household EBI was $25,420 and the
average income per person was 75.6% as high as the state average.
In 1998 Martin County had 22,000 residents spread
among 9,100 households, averaging 2.4 persons per household. The Minnesota average was 2.7 persons per
household. A closer examination indicates
that Martin County and surrounding counties have an older population than the
state as a whole.
As was discussed earlier, Martin County had a sales
leakage of $17.8 million in 1998. All
the comparison counties also had leakages, except for Blue Earth County which
had a surplus of $302 million.

Historical Analysis of Retail Sales for Fairmont
Apparently the Minnesota Department of Revenue does
not have retail sales data further back than the last few years. The next best source of retail sales over a
long period of time is the Census of Retail Trade, conducted by the U.S. Census
Bureau. Unfortunately this survey is
conducted only every five years.
Total Sales
Table 5 shows Census of
Retail Trade data for total sales for five-year intervals from 1977 to
1997. The data is shown for three
nearby Minnesota towns and for two nearby Iowa towns.
Table 5. Current Dollar Total Retail Sales for
Fairmont and Competing Towns, 1977-1997
(in Millions of Dollars)
|
Town |
1977 |
1982 |
1987 |
1992 |
1997 |
|
Fairmont |
$69 |
$89 |
$88 |
$117 |
$164 |
|
Worthington |
$63 |
$91 |
$99 |
$137 |
$170 |
|
Blue Earth |
$27 |
$35 |